samario.dev · The Daily Sheet
2026-06-12Snapshot
Mortgage Command Center
A live view of the U.S. mortgage market — from the bond desk to the borrower
30y fixed6.78%10y treasury4.31%spread2.47
10Y Treasury · DGS10
4.31%
as of 2026-06-15
30Y Survey · PMMS
6.78%
as of 2026-06-12
Primary–Secondary Spread
2.47%
PMMS30 − 10Y
Base Note Rate
6.78%
30Y conv, par
Rate Transmission Pipeline
pass-through 0.95
0 bps
Rate Stack · how the par rate is built
10Y Treasury (benchmark)4.31%
+ Guarantee fee (g-fee)+0.50%
+ Base servicing+0.25%
+ OAS / hedge & fallout+0.95%
+ Originator margin+0.77%
= Par note rate6.78%
+ LLPA grid · 740 / 80%+0.750 pts
= Borrower note rate6.968%
Borrowerprice 99.250
Loan
MBS Coupon Stack · UMBS 30Y TBA
32nds
| Coupon | Price | 32nds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 96.704 | 96-23 | |
| 5.5 | 98.304 | 98-10 | |
| 6.0 | 99.904 | 99-29 | Current |
| 6.5 | 101.504 | 101-16 | |
| 7.0 | 103.104 | 103-03 |
Note rate ≈ coupon + g-fee + servicing. The current coupon is the UMBS trading nearest par — where new production is securitized.
Treasury vs Mortgage vs Spread · monthly history
2019 → today
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Watch the spread (amber) blow out in 2022–23 as mortgages detached from Treasuries, then compress — the part of your rate that has nothing to do with the bond market.
Refi Incentive · outstanding universe
≥ 7.53% to refi
0.0%
in the money
Deep lock-in
<3.0
3.0–3.5
3.5–4.0
4.0–4.5
4.5–5.0
5.0–5.5
5.5–6.0
6.0–6.5
6.5–7.0
7.0+
Note-rate distribution of outstanding loans. Bars at/above the refi threshold (red) are in the money. Shock the 10Y down and watch more of the universe light up — that surge is the prepayment risk MBS investors hedge.
Rate / Price Ladder · best execution
par = 100
| Note Rate | Price | Points / Rebate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.155% | 96.750 | 3.250 pts cost | |
| 6.280% | 97.250 | 2.750 pts cost | |
| 6.405% | 97.750 | 2.250 pts cost | |
| 6.530% | 98.250 | 1.750 pts cost | |
| 6.655% | 98.750 | 1.250 pts cost | |
| 6.780% | 99.250 | 0.750 pts cost | |
| 6.905% | 99.750 | 0.250 pts cost | Best Ex |
| 7.030% | 100.250 | 0.250 pts credit | |
| 7.155% | 100.750 | 0.750 pts credit | |
| 7.280% | 101.250 | 1.250 pts credit | |
| 7.405% | 101.750 | 1.750 pts credit | |
| 7.530% | 102.250 | 2.250 pts credit | |
| 7.655% | 102.750 | 2.750 pts credit |
Take a higher rate for a lender credit toward closing costs, or buy the rate down with points. Best execution is the rate priced nearest par.
Borrower Rate Sheet · 30Y Conventional Purchase
6.78%–7.59%
| FICO / LTV | ≤60 | 60–70 | 70–75 | 75–80 | 80–85 | 85–90 | 90–95 | 95–97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 780 | 6.780 | 6.780 | 6.780 | 6.843 | 6.874 | 6.874 | 6.843 | 6.843 |
| 760–779 | 6.780 | 6.780 | 6.811 | 6.874 | 6.936 | 6.936 | 6.905 | 6.905 |
| 740–759 | 6.811 | 6.843 | 6.874 | 6.968 | 6.999 | 7.030 | 6.968 | 6.936 |
| 720–739 | 6.843 | 6.905 | 6.968 | 7.030 | 7.093 | 7.093 | 7.061 | 7.030 |
| 700–719 | 6.905 | 6.968 | 7.030 | 7.124 | 7.186 | 7.186 | 7.155 | 7.093 |
| 680–699 | 6.936 | 7.030 | 7.124 | 7.249 | 7.280 | 7.311 | 7.249 | 7.155 |
| 660–679 | 7.093 | 7.186 | 7.280 | 7.436 | 7.499 | 7.468 | 7.436 | 7.343 |
| 640–659 | 7.155 | 7.405 | 7.436 | 7.499 | 7.530 | 7.530 | 7.530 | 7.436 |
| < 640 | 7.155 | 7.468 | 7.530 | 7.530 | 7.593 | 7.593 | 7.593 | 7.468 |
Each cell is base 6.78% plus the Fannie LLPA for that credit/LTV box. Green = best execution, red = worst.
Mortgage Rate Theory
What moves a rate sheet — the chain a mortgage analyst lives in
01The 10-Year Treasury — the benchmark+
The 10-year Treasury is the yield on 10-year U.S. government debt — the market's risk-free rate for long-term lending. It's set continuously by the bond market, not decreed by the Fed. Mortgage rates are quoted as a spread over this benchmark. Right now it's 4.31%.
02Why a 30-year loan tracks the 10-year (not the 30-year)+
A 30-year mortgage almost never lasts 30 years — borrowers refinance, sell, or pay off early. Its effective duration is closer to 7–10 years, so lenders benchmark it against the 10-year Treasury, not the 30-year bond.
03Why not the Fed Funds rate? (the #1 misconception)+
The Fed sets the overnight rate banks charge each other. Mortgages are long-term, so they follow long-term yields. The Fed only influences the long end indirectly, via expectations and QE/QT. The 10-year can fall while the Fed hikes — which is why “the Fed cut, why didn't my mortgage drop?” happens.
04From Treasury to mortgage: the spread+
The gap between the borrower rate and the 10-year — the primary–secondary spread, currently 2.47% — is a stack: GSE guarantee fees, servicing, hedge cost, and originator margin. It widened past 3% in 2022–23 and compresses when markets are calm.
05The MBS market & the “current coupon”+
Lenders pool loans into mortgage-backed securities (UMBS for conforming) and sell them to investors. Rate sheets derive from MBS prices in the TBA market. The current coupon is the MBS trading nearest par — the true anchor of consumer rates.
06Prepayment risk & negative convexity (the heart of MBS)+
Borrowers hold a free option to prepay. When rates fall they refinance — investors get cash back early to reinvest at lower yields (call risk). When rates rise, prepayments slow and the bond's life extends (extension risk). The option always works against the holder, so MBS show negative convexity and pay extra yield.
07OAS — option-adjusted spread+
To compare MBS fairly, desks strip out the prepayment option's value and quote the option-adjusted spread — the true compensation over Treasuries after modeling prepayments across thousands of rate paths. OAS tells an analyst if MBS are cheap or rich.
08LLPAs — risk-based pricing+
Fannie and Freddie charge upfront price adjustments by credit score, LTV, occupancy, cash-out, property type, and loan size — quoted in points. (A vet's tell: the 2023 DTI-based LLPA was rescinded before it ever took effect.)
09Rate, price & points — best execution+
A rate sheet isn't one rate; it's a price for every rate. At par the price is 100. Take a higher rate for a lender rebate; take a lower rate and pay points. The rate priced nearest par is best execution.